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‘Lower For Longer’ Is Losing
Asset markets on Friday reversed course after fully digesting a payroll report that has been universally assailed. The thinking is, apparently, that the Fed will have no choice but to stay on the...
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It Took Three Decades, But Fears of Turning Japanese Are Closer Than Ever
It may be unexpected to economists, but the sudden and uniform economic downside that is either appearing or strengthening almost everywhere in the world is closely tracking the wholesale “dollar.” In...
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Fool Part 2; No Rational Basis
Since some markets seem to be waiting on either longer lingering in ZIRP (US) or renewed and heavier QE (Japan, Europe) it is worth examining exactly what they are anticipating. Obviously, that desire...
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How We Got Here: The Fed Confuses Itself Part 3
I was rather content to let the matter lie after devoting a couple of lengthy expositions to it, but the Fed has its own way of confirming every charge. I am writing again about the fact that the...
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Production Discounting Globally Suggest US Consumers In Deepening Recession
When addressing the inability of monetary policy to actually produce its “inflation” target, the FOMC has been left to hiding. They fully and openly admit the role of oil prices in the depression of...
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And These Are The People Who Loved That Price
When the Fed is revered as it is in certain circles, its superstitions afford unwavering faith and even straight up desire. It is much, much easier and comforting to believe in a benevolent guiding...
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Bubble Cycle Inefficiency And Valuations
Last week the Federal Reserve updated its quarterly Financial Accounts of the United States Z1 (formerly Flow of Funds) meaning that we can recheck valuation levels of the stock bubble from alternate...
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Durable Goods May Not Actually Show Recession, And That Is The Worst Case
Orthodox economic theory assigns recession to some exogenous “shock.” Without it, an economy is supposed to grow indefinitely along its trend or potential baseline so long as NAIRU (non-accelerating...
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The (Non)Appeal of More Debt
While continuing to tout an economic recovery that is being missed by far too many, the government and economists say one thing and then move toward the other. The unemployment rate claims one economic...
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The Global Economy Didn’t Change Last Year, Views of QE Did
The stock market is still viewed as if it were a discounting mechanism, a system where information is processed and priced to deliver insight about the fundamental state of liquidity, markets, and the...
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